Projected federal tax savings from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by income bracket, state, and industry. Based on enacted OBBBA provisions, JCT-style distributional estimates, and BLS occupation wage data.
By Ziv Shay | Published April 17, 2026 | Projections based on 2024 IRS SOI + OBBBA enacted text
The projections below combine (1) the enacted text of OBBBA, (2) 2024 IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) baseline data on income distribution, itemization rates, and filing patterns, (3) Bureau of Labor Statistics wage and hours data for industry-specific overtime and tips analysis, and (4) state-level combined SALT burdens from the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and each state's Department of Revenue. The average household savings of $1,840 is calculated as aggregate projected savings ($300B) divided by ~163 million filing households, weighted by income distribution.
Individual results vary dramatically. Use our main tax calculator for personalized 2026 estimates.
OBBBA savings scale with income in absolute dollars but not proportionally. The SALT cap increase benefits mostly upper-middle to upper-income itemizers in high-tax states. The tips and overtime exemptions benefit middle-income service and hourly workers. The senior $4,000 bonus is flat across all income levels.
| AGI Range | Avg Savings | Primary Source | % of Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $30,000 | $312 | Tips exemption, refundable credits | ~1.2% |
| $30,000 – $50,000 | $687 | Tips, overtime exemptions | ~1.7% |
| $50,000 – $75,000 | $1,240 | Overtime, standard deduction increase | ~1.98% |
| $75,000 – $100,000 | $1,880 | Overtime, SALT partial, itemization flip | ~2.15% |
| $100,000 – $150,000 | $2,740 | SALT cap, brackets indexing | ~2.19% |
| $150,000 – $250,000 | $4,620 | SALT cap (primary) | ~2.31% |
| $250,000 – $500,000 | $6,850 | SALT cap, bracket indexing | ~1.82% |
| $500,000+ | $8,420 | SALT cap (capped at $40K) | ~1.05% |
Source: Projections from 2024 IRS SOI Tax Year 2022 data applied to OBBBA provisions. Individual results vary.
See your personalized 2026 savings: SALT Calculator | Overtime Calculator | Tips Calculator | Senior Calculator
The biggest-ticket OBBBA provision is the SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction cap increase from $10,000 to $40,000. The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation projects that 8.7 million additional households will itemize in 2026 because of this change, with aggregate federal tax relief concentrated in six high-tax states.
| State | Annual Benefit | Households Affected | Avg Per-Household |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $6.2B | 1.9M | $3,260 |
| California | $5.8B | 2.1M | $2,760 |
| New Jersey | $3.1B | 0.9M | $3,440 |
| Massachusetts | $1.4B | 0.5M | $2,800 |
| Illinois | $1.3B | 0.6M | $2,170 |
| Connecticut | $0.9B | 0.3M | $3,000 |
| Maryland | $0.8B | 0.35M | $2,280 |
| Pennsylvania | $0.6B | 0.4M | $1,500 |
| Other states combined | $2.1B | 1.65M | $1,270 |
| Total US | $22.2B | 8.7M | $2,552 |
The benefit is dramatically uneven: New York and California alone capture 54% of the total SALT benefit. A NJ homeowner paying $22,000 in combined state income and property taxes can now deduct all of it (vs $10,000 previously), saving $2,880 in federal tax at a 24% marginal rate.
OBBBA exempts cash/credit card tips and overtime pay (hours beyond 40/week at 1.5x) from federal income tax for qualifying W-2 workers. FICA still applies. The biggest beneficiaries are service workers and hourly workers in industries with heavy overtime.
| Occupation | Median Wages | Est. Tips | Federal Tax Saved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant Server | $20,500 | $10,200 | $1,320/yr |
| Bartender | $23,800 | $18,400 | $2,180/yr |
| Hotel Bellhop/Concierge | $26,400 | $7,200 | $980/yr |
| Hair Stylist/Barber | $29,200 | $11,500 | $1,540/yr |
| Taxi/Rideshare Driver | $31,500 | $4,800 | $640/yr |
| Casino Dealer | $28,400 | $14,800 | $1,870/yr |
| Delivery Driver (tipped) | $33,200 | $6,400 | $850/yr |
Source: BLS May 2024 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. Federal tax saved assumes tips would have been taxed at filer's marginal rate (12-22%). FICA still applies.
| Occupation | Base Wages | Typical OT | Federal Tax Saved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Worker | $52,000 | $12,000 | $2,640/yr |
| RN/Nurse | $81,000 | $10,400 | $2,340/yr |
| Police Officer | $69,000 | $13,500 | $2,880/yr |
| Firefighter | $58,000 | $15,200 | $2,910/yr |
| Manufacturing Worker | $48,000 | $8,400 | $1,920/yr |
| Truck Driver | $54,000 | $9,200 | $1,680/yr |
| Electrician | $64,000 | $11,800 | $2,510/yr |
| Warehouse Worker | $38,000 | $7,800 | $1,460/yr |
Source: BLS May 2024 OEWS data. Tax savings assume overtime would otherwise be taxed at 22% federal marginal rate.
OBBBA creates a new $4,000 bonus standard deduction for taxpayers age 65+, on top of the regular standard deduction and the existing senior additional. For a single senior in the 22% bracket, this saves $880/year. For a couple both 65+ in the 24% bracket, combined senior bonuses total $8,000 and save $1,920/year.
| Senior Scenario | Bonus Added | Federal Tax Saved | Est. Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single, age 65+, 12% bracket | $4,000 | $480 | 12.4M |
| Single, age 65+, 22% bracket | $4,000 | $880 | 8.6M |
| Single, age 65+, 24% bracket | $4,000 | $960 | 3.1M |
| MFJ, both 65+, 12% bracket | $8,000 | $960 | 9.2M households |
| MFJ, both 65+, 22% bracket | $8,000 | $1,760 | 5.8M households |
| MFJ, both 65+, 24% bracket | $8,000 | $1,920 | 2.4M households |
Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age; IRS SOI Tax Year 2022 senior filer distribution.
Total senior beneficiaries: approximately 58 million individuals across 41 million returns, with aggregate federal tax relief estimated at $38 billion annually. Use our Senior Tax Calculator for personalized results.
Not every taxpayer gains from OBBBA. Some groups see minimal or negative changes:
Approximately $1,840 per household on average in 2026. Lower earners save $300-$650, middle earners save $1,200-$2,400, and high-tax-state upper-middle earners save $3,500-$6,800.
$150K-$400K benefits most in absolute dollars (SALT cap driven). Tipped/overtime workers at $30K-$75K benefit most as % of income (4-8% pay boost).
NY ($6.2B), CA ($5.8B), NJ ($3.1B), MA ($1.4B), IL ($1.3B), CT ($900M). Together these six states capture over 80% of the SALT benefit.
Restaurant servers save ~$1,320/year; bartenders save ~$2,180/year; hair stylists save ~$1,540/year. FICA still applies.
Construction workers save ~$2,640/yr; police/firefighters ~$2,880/yr; nurses ~$2,340/yr; manufacturing/warehouse ~$1,500-$2,000/yr.
Model your personalized 2026 tax savings across all OBBBA provisions.
Federal Tax Calculator →Related: US Tax Statistics 2026 | State Tax Rates 2026 | OBBBA Guide | SALT Calculator | Overtime Calculator | Tips Calculator | Senior Calculator
Tax calculations are estimates for educational and informational purposes only. This site does not provide tax, legal, or financial advice. Tax laws change frequently. Always consult a qualified tax professional for advice specific to your situation. Data sourced from IRS publications and official state tax authority websites.
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